Context
- The Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) has released a projection stating that India’s population is expected to stabilise by the year 2080. According to IASP, India’s population will peak at 1.8 to 1.9 billion before stabilisation occurs. This demographic trend is linked directly to India’s rapidly declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which has now fallen below the replacement level.
This topic is highly relevant for UPSC GS1 (Population & Society) and GS3 (Human Development Indicators).
Key Highlights of the IASP Findings
1. India’s Population Is Expected to Stabilise by 2080
- The IASP has stated that India’s population will reach its maximum level during the year 2080. At that time, the population is expected to be between 1.8 and 1.9 billion. The organisation has also confirmed that all available projections indicate that India’s population will remain below two billion.
2. India’s Total Fertility Rate Has Fallen Below the Replacement Level
- India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has undergone a significant decline over the past two decades. The TFR was 3.5 in the year 2000, and it has now fallen to 1.9 in the year 2024. The replacement-level fertility is 2.1, and India’s current TFR is below this threshold, which indicates a long-term reduction in population growth.
3. Multiple Factors Are Responsible for the Falling Fertility Rate
- IASP has highlighted several reasons why India’s fertility rate has declined at a rapid pace.
a. Rising Education Levels Have Strongly Influenced Fertility
- The rise in educational attainment, especially among women, has significantly influenced decisions related to marriage and family size. Higher female literacy has led to a preference for delaying marriage and opting for smaller families. Among educated groups, the TFR generally lies between 1.5 and 1.8, whereas illiterate groups often display fertility levels above three.
b. Development and Urbanisation Have Contributed to Lower Fertility
- India is undergoing rapid socio-economic development, and development is generally inversely proportional to birth rates. Higher levels of income, improved living standards, and urban lifestyles have encouraged couples to plan fewer children.
c. Increased Access to Contraceptives Has Allowed Better Family Planning
- India has witnessed significant improvements in the availability and use of contraceptives. This development has allowed couples to exercise better control over the spacing and number of children they wish to have.
d. Late Marriages and Career Opportunities Have Influenced Reproductive Choices
- A rising age of marriage and the increasing participation of women in the workforce have both contributed to lower fertility rates. Many women now choose to pursue higher education and careers before starting families, which has led to delayed childbirth and reduced family size.
4. State-Level Fertility Trends Demonstrate Significant Variation
Kerala
- Kerala achieved replacement-level fertility between 1987 and 1989, and it currently has a Total Fertility Rate of approximately 1.5. This figure places Kerala among the states with the lowest fertility levels in India.
West Bengal
- According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, West Bengal’s TFR has declined from 1.7 in 2013 to 1.3 in 2023. This decline represents a reduction of nearly 18%. West Bengal now ranks among the states with the lowest fertility rates in the country. The state’s TFR is on par with Tamil Nadu and only slightly higher than Delhi. The report also shows that West Bengal has the lowest urban TFR in India and the second-lowest rural TFR at the national level.
Tamil Nadu
- Tamil Nadu continues to maintain a fertility rate that is well below the replacement level, placing it alongside states such as Kerala and West Bengal in the low-fertility category.
5. Life Expectancy Is Increasing Due to Improvements in Healthcare
- IASP has noted that India’s life expectancy continues to rise because of improvements in healthcare services, better medical technology, and wider access to healthcare facilities. This increase in life expectancy, combined with lower birth rates, will gradually shift India’s age structure toward an ageing population.
Conclusion
India is undergoing a significant demographic transformation. The decline in the Total Fertility Rate, the rise in life expectancy, and improvements in socio-economic conditions collectively indicate that India is moving toward population stabilisation by 2080. This transition will have far-reaching implications for economic planning, labour force participation, social welfare, and policy formulation. Therefore, understanding these demographic trends is important for UPSC aspirants preparing for both the Preliminary and Mains examinations.
